CRIMSON DRIFT MASTER TIMELINE (rev. 6 Jun 2025) Color code: 🟩 low · 🟨 moderate · 🟧 high · 🟥 severe | Confidence: A official docs / multi-source · B multi outlet · C single major source · D preliminary
Date Event / Measure Phase tag Severity Confidence Source 20 Jan 2025 Inauguration + Day-1 EOs – rescinds “protected-areas” memo; signs birth-right-citizenship order.IV→V 🟧 A nafsa.org reuters.com 15 Mar 2025 CECOT deportations – 238 Venezuelans flown to El Salvador mega-prison; no NTAs or hearings.V 🟥 B texastribune.org hrw.org 23 Mar 2025 Judge Boasberg grants emergency stay; flights continue, triggering contempt motion (ongoing). V 🟥 B wsj.com abcnews.go.com 11 Apr 2025 Harvard ultimatum letter – threat to foreign students for ‘conduct violations’.V 🟧 B harvard.edu 17 Apr 2025 Palantir wins $30 M “ImmigrationOS” contract (prototype due Sep 2025).V 🟥 A wired.com immpolicytracking.org 19 May 2025 70 % DOJ Civil-Rights lawyers resign in protest of policy shifts.V 🟧 B npr.org 27 May 2025 404 Media reveals Flock AI-ALPR network feeding ICE without contract. V 🟥 A 404media.co 29 May 2025 Quota memo – Miller & Noem order 3 000 daily arrests.V 🟥 B theguardian.com axios.com 31 May 2025 San Diego restaurant raid with flash-bangs sparks spontaneous protest (field-test).V 🟨 C cbs8.com 3 Jun 2025 $9.4 B rescission package targets PBS, NPR, USAID.V 🟧 A cbsnews.com 4 Jun 2025 Boasberg order re CECOT ignored; deportation flights proceed.V 🟥 B wsj.com 5 Jun 2025 Trump signs proclamation restricting Harvard foreign visas. V 🟧 B theguardian.com
FORWARD LOOK (probabilities = current CD model)
Window Projection Prob. Confidence Lead indicators 14 Jun 2025 Coordinated protest flash-point (≥ 3 injuries or 1 death). 30 % C Weaponized rhetoric; last-minute permit revocations; Guard pre-staging. Q3 2025 National Guard or DoD air-lift support for ICE Air. 35 % D SAM.gov charter requests; Guard “civil-support” orders. Sep 2025 Palantir ImmigrationOS prototype goes live ; real-time geofencing. 70 % A Contract milestone; beta testing on CBP servers. Q4 2025 Expansion of detention camps / contractor sites. 50 % C GSA emergency leases; FEMA base-camp buys. Q1 2026 AI-flag arrests of journalists / lawmakers tied to repealed press shield.15 % D DOJ guidance citing “malign influence” + sealed indictments. Summer 2026 Federalised protest-permit regime finalised (DHS rule). 25 % D Comment period closure; interim final rule in Federal Register. Nov 2026 Mid-terms Emergency security directive affecting polling or turnout (curfew, comms blackout).20 % D Pre-election national-security proclamation; DHS regional “continuity” exercises.
TRANSPARENCY & SOURCING
Every historical entry cites at least one open-source record using CD’s 🟥/🟧/🟨/🟩 + A–D rubric.
Predictions include explicit probabilities and leading indicators for falsifiability.
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