CRIMSON DRIFT MASTER TIMELINE
rev. 8 Jun 2025
Color Code: 🟩 low · 🟨 moderate · 🟧 high · 🟥 severe | Confidence: A = official docs / multi-source · B = multi outlet · C = single major source · D = preliminary_
📅 HISTORICAL TIMELINE
| Date | Event / Measure | Phase | Severity | Confidence | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2025 | Inauguration + Day-1 EOs – rescinds “protected-areas” memo; signs birth-right-citizenship order. | IV→V | 🟧 | A | nafsa.org, reuters.com |
| 15 Mar 2025 | CECOT deportations – 238 Venezuelans flown to El Salvador mega-prison; no NTAs or hearings. | V | 🟥 | B | texastribune.org, hrw.org |
| 23 Mar 2025 | Judge Boasberg grants emergency stay; flights continue, triggering contempt motion (ongoing). | V | 🟥 | B | wsj.com, abcnews.go.com |
| 11 Apr 2025 | Harvard ultimatum letter – threat to foreign students for ‘conduct violations’. | V | 🟧 | B | harvard.edu |
| 17 Apr 2025 | Palantir wins $30 M “ImmigrationOS” contract (prototype due Sep 2025). | V | 🟥 | A | wired.com, immpolicytracking.org |
| 19 May 2025 | 70 % DOJ Civil-Rights lawyers resign in protest of policy shifts. | V | 🟧 | B | npr.org |
| 27 May 2025 | 404 Media reveals Flock AI-ALPR network feeding ICE without contract. | V | 🟥 | A | 404media.co |
| 29 May 2025 | Quota memo – Miller & Noem order 3,000 daily arrests. | V | 🟥 | B | theguardian.com, axios.com |
| 31 May 2025 | San Diego restaurant raid with flash-bangs sparks spontaneous protest (field-test). | V | 🟨 | C | cbs8.com |
| 3 Jun 2025 | $9.4 B rescission package targets PBS, NPR, USAID. | V | 🟧 | A | cbsnews.com |
| 4 Jun 2025 | Boasberg order re CECOT ignored; deportation flights proceed. | V | 🟥 | B | wsj.com |
| 5 Jun 2025 | Trump signs proclamation restricting Harvard foreign visas. | V | 🟧 | B | theguardian.com |
| 7 Jun 2025 | ICE graduation raid triggers protests; multi-site clashes across LA. | VI→VII | 🟥 | C | livestreams, tweets |
| 7 Jun 2025 | Federalized National Guard order issued over CA Gov’s objection. | VII | 🟥 | B | @CAgovernor |
| 7 Jun 2025 | SecDef Hegseth warns Marines at Pendleton “on high alert” for urban deployment. | VII | 🟥 | B | NBC, Fox |
| 7 Jun 2025 | Protesters erect barricades, fires in Compton; police use flashbang volleys. | VII | 🟥 | B | YouTube, livestreams |
| 7 Jun 2025 | CBP chopper delivers sealed metal buckets + crates to protest zone. | VII | 🟨 | D | livestream footage |
| 8 Jun 2025 | LAPD, LASD, Guard maintain tactical suppression across city zones. | VII | 🟥 | B | journalist reports |
🔮 FORWARD LOOK (Crimson Drift Model Projections)
| Window | Projection | Prob. | Confidence | Lead Indicators |
| 14 Jun 2025 | Nationwide protest convergence event with potential for fatal violence (≥ 1 death highly probable). | 60 % | B | Active Guard deployments; suppression zones; protest call amplification; unresolved community trauma from June 7. |
| Q3 2025 | National Guard or DoD air-lift support for ICE Air. | 35 % | D | SAM.gov charter requests; Guard “civil-support” orders. |
| Sep 2025 | Palantir ImmigrationOS prototype goes live; real-time geofencing. | 70 % | A | Contract milestone; beta testing on CBP servers. |
| Q4 2025 | Expansion of detention camps / contractor sites. | 50 % | C | GSA emergency leases; FEMA base-camp buys. |
| Q1 2026 | AI-flag arrests of journalists / lawmakers tied to repealed press shield. | 15 % | D | DOJ guidance citing “malign influence” + sealed indictments. |
| Summer 2026 | Federalised protest-permit regime finalised (DHS rule). | 25 % | D | Comment period closure; interim final rule in Federal Register. |
| Nov 2026 Mid-terms | Emergency security directive affecting polling or turnout (curfew, comms blackout). | 20 % | D | Pre-election national-security proclamation; DHS regional “continuity” exercises. |
🔍 TRANSPARENCY & SOURCING
Every historical entry cites at least one open-source record using CD’s 🟥/🟧/🟨/🟩 + A–D rubric.
Predictions include explicit probabilities and leading indicators for falsifiability.