A note from RaveGoat:
🚨 Crimson Drift just leveled up.
We’ve upgraded our Threat Assessment process to be more accurate, transparent, and verifiable—with confidence levels, probabilities, and direct sourcing for every claim. No vibes, no fluff. Just the facts, herded by the Goat. 🐐📊
CRIMSON DRIFT — PHASE V THREAT ASSESSMENT (rev. 5 Jun 2025)
All severities use a four-step heat scale (🟩 low ‖ 🟨 moderate ‖ 🟧 high ‖ 🟥 severe).
Confidence codes: A = official docs / multi-source confirmation, B = multiple reputable outlets, C = single major source, D = preliminary or anecdotal.
I. Systemic Threat Overview
| Domain | Severity | Confidence | Key evidence (chronological) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Separation of Powers | 🟧 | B | DHS/ICE agents handcuffed a Rep. Nadler staffer in his district office without warrant abc7ny.com; Newark Mayor Ras Baraka arrested at ICE protest aljazeera.com |
| Judicial Neutrality | 🟧 | B | Justice Barrett publicly pressed gov’t counsel on whether the administration will obey the Court in the birth-right-citizenship case scotusblog.com |
| Civil-Society Protections | 🟥 | B | Campus and Cop-City protestors face mass felony charges and deportation attempts hrw.orgtheguardian.com |
| Press Freedom | 🟧 | A | DOJ rescinded 2022 news-media subpoena limits and source-protection rules rcfp.org |
| Legislative Obstruction | 🟧 | C | ICE entry into congressional offices (Nadler incident) + administration ignoring committee subpoenas abc7ny.com |
II. Primary Threat Vectors
| # | Vector (Codename) | Snapshot & Severity | Confidence | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glass Hammer (Surveillance stack) | 🟥 | A | • Palantir wins $30 M “ImmigrationOS” contract for live targeting inside ICM immpolicytracking.org • 5 000-city Flock ALPR mesh queried for ICE look-ups 404media.co • IRS–ICE ITIN data-share MOU under FOIA dispute americanoversight.org • CBP Home self-deportation & biometric exit pilot dhs.gov • Mandatory Form G-325R alien registration launched uscis.gov |
| 2 | System Drift (Institutional hollowing) | 🟧 | B | • 70 % of DOJ Civil-Rights Division attorneys resign npr.org • EO blocks new foreign students at Harvard — direct retaliation for governance push-back apnews.com |
| 3 | Signal Blitz (Narrative warfare) | 🟧 | C | • Trump vows to reopen Alcatraz as “law-and-order symbol” pbs.org • Conspiracy-laden Truth posts that mix policy with threats axios.com |
| 4 | PrivCore (Contractor-state fusion) | 🟥 | C | • Palantir (ImmigrationOS) + Anduril border AI; General Matter positioned for HALEU/AI work under May 23 nuclear EO morganlewis.com |
| 5 | Selective Attrition (Target-group suppression) | 🟥 | B | • LGBTQ youth program in 988 hotline slated for elimination npr.org • Algorithm-driven CECOT deportations bypass hearings until courts intervene reuters.com |
III. Strategic Scoreboard
| Domain | Level | Confidence | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surveillance | 🟥 Severe | A | Federated stack now operational in >3 agencies |
| Civil Liberties | 🟧 High | B | Legal safeguards rolled back via memo/EO |
| Judiciary | 🟨 Med-High | B | Still issues stays, but open defiance rising |
| Media / Press | 🟧 High | A | Source protections revoked; chilling lawsuits |
| Protest & Assembly | 🟥 Severe | B | Sensitive-location rescission + broadened “adjacent property” rule nafsa.orgfederalregister.gov |
| Contractor Influence | 🟥 Severe | B–C | Critical enforcement tech outsourced, low transparency |
| Immigrant Rights | 🟥 Severe | B | Automated removals, registries, self-deport app live |
IV. 90-Day Forecast
| Projection | Prob-ability | Confidence | Leading indicators / tripwires |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phase V lock-in (institutional capture becomes baseline) | 90 % | A | Continued civil-rights staffing exodus; budget riders cementing policy shifts |
| June 14 “Flag Day” flash-point (≥ 3 injuries or 1 death) | 30 % | C | Extremist chatter spikes; permit revocations; intel bulletins elevating threat level |
| Expanded DHS protest jurisdiction finalized | 20 % | D | Proposed rule moves from comment to interim final; FY 2026 budget request for Protective Security Ops |
| Contractor push into public-school or media analytics | 25 % | D | RFIs from ED/NED; pilot MOU with Palantir or Anduril for “school safety” dashboards |
| AI-flag–based arrests of journalists or lawmakers | 15 % | D | Public DOJ guidance linking press-protections repeal to “malign influence” predicates |
V. Priority Actions for Resistance (Phase-V Specific)
- Comms hardening 2.0 – migrate core channels to federated, end-to-end platforms (Matrix, Mastodon) with metadata-blinding relays.
- Surveillance-contractor map – maintain live graph of agency ↔ vendor ↔ capability to spot new tendrils.
- Flash-point prep – stock pre-formatted rights hotlines, livestream relays, and Narcan/first-aid kits ahead of 14 June mobilizations.
- Evidence vaulting – mirror key documents & videos to at least three geographically diverse servers; hash-sign nightly.
- Legal rapid-response fund – pre-authorize retainers for deportation & protest defense; publicize donation QR codes offline to dodge platform throttling.