rev. 8 Jun 2025 All severities use a four-step heat scale (🟩 low ‖ 🟨 moderate ‖ 🟧 high ‖ 🟥 severe). Confidence codes: A = official docs / multi-source confirmation, B = multiple reputable outlets, C = single major source, D = preliminary or anecdotal._
I. Systemic Threat Overview
Domain
Severity
Confidence
Key evidence (chronological)
Separation of Powers
🟥
B
DHS/ICE agents handcuffed a Rep. Nadler staffer in his district office without warrant (abc7ny.com); Newark Mayor Ras Baraka arrested at ICE protest (aljazeera.com); reports of ICE temporarily detaining state officials at border checkpoints (cnn.com)
Judicial Neutrality
🟥
B
Justice Barrett publicly pressed gov’t counsel on whether the administration will obey the Court in the birth-right-citizenship case (scotusblog.com); continued deportation flights in open defiance of Boasberg orders (wsj.com)
Civil-Society Protections
🟥
B
Campus and Cop-City protestors face mass felony charges and deportation attempts (hrw.org, theguardian.com); federal funding threats against LGBTQ centers and mutual aid collectives (npr.org)
Press Freedom
🟥
A
DOJ rescinded 2022 news-media subpoena limits and source-protection rules (rcfp.org); proposed guidance linking “malign influence” to independent media sources (justice.gov draft)
Legislative Obstruction
🟥
B
ICE entry into congressional offices (Nadler incident) + administration ignoring committee subpoenas (abc7ny.com); ongoing refusals to appear before oversight committees (washingtonpost.com)
II. Primary Threat Vectors
#
Vector (Codename)
Snapshot & Severity
Confidence
Notes
1
Glass Hammer (Surveillance stack)
🟥
A
• Palantir wins $30 M “ImmigrationOS” contract for live targeting inside ICM (immpolicytracking.org)
Phase VI onset (federal-military enforcement emerges)
100 %
A
Military alert orders; executive defiance of court; DHS suppression of protest at scale; structural refusal to comply with legislative oversight
June 14 “Flag Day” flash-point (≥ 1 death likely)
60 %
B
Protester injuries mounting; Guard and Marine pre-deployments; open threats from federal officials; choke points established near Federal complexes
Expanded DHS protest jurisdiction finalized
30 %
D
Proposed rule moves from comment to interim final; FY 2026 budget request for Protective Security Ops; interagency memos leaked
Contractor push into public-school or media analytics
25 %
D
RFIs from ED/NED; pilot MOU with Palantir or Anduril for “school safety” dashboards
AI-flag–based arrests of journalists or lawmakers
20 %
D
DOJ guidance linking press-protections repeal to “malign influence” predicates; sealed indictments potentially in motion
V. Priority Actions for Resistance (Phase-V Specific)
Comms hardening 2.0 – migrate core channels to federated, end-to-end platforms (Matrix, Mastodon) with metadata-blinding relays.
Surveillance-contractor map – maintain live graph of agency ↔ vendor ↔ capability to spot new tendrils.
Flash-point prep – stock pre-formatted rights hotlines, livestream relays, and first-aid kits ahead of 14 June mobilizations.
Evidence vaulting – mirror key documents & videos to at least three geographically diverse servers; hash-sign nightly.
Legal rapid-response fund – pre-authorize retainers for deportation & protest defense; publicize donation QR codes offline to dodge platform throttling.
